Stone to Silicon

Energy · around 2045

Commercial fusion electricity

Projection

A fusion plant sends net electricity to the grid on a commercial contract.

Fusion would burn isotopes of hydrogen drawn from water and lithium, with no long-lived high-level waste. A working power plant would open an effectively unlimited, dense and clean energy source.

Why it’s plausible: NIF showed ignition and high-field superconducting magnets have shrunk tokamak designs; still unsolved are sustained high-gain operation, tritium breeding, materials that survive neutron damage and competitive cost.

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Arcs above join it to what it stood on, arcs below to what it led to. The bar places this stretch on the tree's whole timeline.

What it built on 6

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Related measurements

Record fusion triple product Latest: 1.73×10²² keV·s/m³ (2017) Source: Wurzel & Hsu 2022, Physics of Plasmas 29, 062103; Wurzel & Hsu 2025 update, Physics of Plasmas 32, 112106

Share of electricity from low-carbon sources Latest: 42.6 % (2025) Source: Our World in Data

World primary energy by source Latest: 178k TWh (2025) Source: Our World in Data