Artificial intelligence · around 2029
Autonomous AI researchers
Projection
AI agents run a research programme end to end, from hypothesis to published result.
Agents that read literature, design experiments, write and run code, and analyse results would compress research cycles from months to days. They would accelerate AI research itself as well as other sciences.
Why it’s plausible: Reasoning models already complete multi-hour software and research tasks; full autonomy depends on reliable long-horizon planning, verification of results and access to real experiments.
What it built on 6
What it led to 1
Related measurements
Best AI score on GPQA Diamond Latest: 95.8 % correct (2026) Source: Epoch AI, Capabilities & benchmarking (benchmark_data.zip, gpqa_diamond.csv); Anthropic: Claude 3 public launch (March 4, 2024)
Training compute of notable AI models Source: Epoch AI, Notable AI Models (CC BY 4.0)