Artificial intelligence · around 2032

Artificial general intelligence

Projection

AI that can do nearly all cognitive work a skilled remote worker can, at comparable cost.

Defined here as systems able to perform nearly all economically valuable tasks that can be done at a computer, at human-competitive cost and reliability. Such systems would reshape science, work and the economy.

Why it’s plausible: Capabilities have risen steadily with compute and new training methods; the date depends on continued scaling, reliability on long tasks, and on the definition, which experts dispute.

See it in the living treeWikipedia