Computing · around 2032

Fault-tolerant quantum computer

Projection

Error-corrected logical qubits run long algorithms that no classical machine can.

Quantum error correction encodes one reliable qubit in many physical ones. A fault-tolerant machine with hundreds of logical qubits could simulate molecules and materials exactly.

Why it’s plausible: Below-threshold error correction was shown in 2024 and logical qubit counts are rising; usefulness depends on scaling to many thousands of physical qubits with fast, cheap control.

See it in the living treeWikipedia